TL;DR
Get home appliances delivered free — and shop member deals
- Fast, free delivery on millions of items
- Access to Prime Big Deal Days deals on October 6–7
- Prime Video, Amazon Music and more included
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, its third straight monthly decline in expectations. Consumers’ views of current business conditions turned negative for the first time since September 2024, and 12-month inflation expectations rose to 6.1% on average.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, down from 88.6 in August, the organization reported on September 29, 2026. The decline marked a third consecutive monthly drop in consumer expectations and came during a survey window that included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Both major components of the index deteriorated. The Present Situation Index, which reflects consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell 7.9 points to 109.3. The Expectations Index, which captures the short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, declined 5.9 points to 63.6 — its third consecutive monthly decline.
Net views of current business conditions — the share of consumers calling conditions “good” versus “bad” — declined by 3.4 percentage points to -1.9%, turning negative for the first time since September 2024. The drop was driven largely by more consumers describing business conditions as “bad.” Perceptions of current employment also softened: the labor market differential, which subtracts the share saying jobs are “hard to get” from the share saying jobs are “plentiful,” retreated 2.5 percentage points to +1.7%.
All three components of the Expectations Index worsened. Net expectations for business conditions dipped 3.2 percentage points to -9.5%, while net expectations for the labor market fell 3.1 percentage points to -14.4%. Net expectations for household income declined 3.0 percentage points but stayed positive at +2.5%. Average 12-month inflation expectations rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.1% (median: 5.1%), and the share of consumers anticipating higher interest rates over the next 12 months jumped 5.2 percentage points to 68.4%.
Why Household Sentiment Matters for Spending
Consumer confidence is closely watched because household spending drives a large share of U.S. economic activity, and retailers — including hardware and home improvement stores tracked by Hardware Retailing — depend heavily on consumer willingness to spend. A third straight decline in expectations, combined with expectations turning negative for business conditions and the labor market, suggests households are increasingly bracing for a weaker economy over the next six months.
The figures also point to pressure points that could constrain discretionary purchases: rising inflation expectations and a growing share of consumers expecting higher interest rates, which raises borrowing costs for big-ticket items often financed with credit, such as home renovations, appliances, and vehicles. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence declined across all age groups and nearly all income groups, indicating the softening is broad-based rather than confined to one segment of consumers.
Rate Hike and Tensions Shaped the Survey Window
The September survey was conducted between September 1 and 23, 2026, a period that included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions, according to Hardware Retailing’s report on the Conference Board data. The Conference Board described the September result as a deterioration following two prior months of softening.
Among income groups, higher-income households remained generally more optimistic, but consumers with household incomes of $125,000 to $149,000 reported the greatest decline in confidence over the last six months. Consumers still largely expected stock prices to rise over the next 12 months, though that optimism moderated during the month. The report followed separate data showing retail sales rose modestly in August, an 11th consecutive monthly gain — a contrast between still-growing spending and weakening sentiment.
What the Confidence Data Cannot Yet Tell Us
The September figures are preliminary results from the Conference Board, and the survey window closed on September 23, meaning late-month economic or geopolitical developments are not reflected. It is not yet clear whether the decline in sentiment will translate into actual cuts in consumer spending; August retail sales continued their streak of gains even as confidence softened in prior months.
The report does not isolate how much of the decline was driven by the rate hike versus geopolitical tensions or other factors. Whether the downward trend in expectations continues into October, and how the labor market evolves in coming months, remain open questions.
Watching October Data and Holiday Spending
Economists and retailers will watch the October Consumer Confidence Index to see whether the downward trend extends into a fourth month or stabilizes. Upcoming official data on retail sales, employment and inflation will test whether weakening sentiment is showing up in actual economic activity. The approaching holiday shopping season is a key test of whether still-positive income expectations and moderated stock market optimism translate into sustained consumer spending despite elevated inflation and interest-rate expectations.
Key Questions
How much did consumer confidence fall in September?
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9, down from 88.6 in August.
Which parts of the index declined the most?
The Present Situation Index fell 7.9 points to 109.3, while the Expectations Index declined 5.9 points to 63.6 — its third consecutive monthly drop.
What did consumers expect for inflation and interest rates?
Average 12-month inflation expectations rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.1% (median 5.1%), and 68.4% of consumers expected higher interest rates over the next 12 months, up 5.2 percentage points.
When was the survey conducted?
The preliminary September results were based on responses collected between September 1 and 23, 2026, a period that included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Did confidence decline across all groups?
On a six-month moving average basis, confidence trended downward across all age groups and nearly all income groups. Households earning $125,000-$149,000 reported the greatest decline over the last six months.
Source: rss
Fall yard work Picks
leaf blowers
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
